Miguel Faria-e-Castro
Senior Economic Policy Advisor and Research Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Lecturer, Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis

Associate Editor, Journal of Banking & Finance

Ph.D. in Economics, New York University

Working Papers

  1. The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal, August 2026

  2. Stabilization vs. Growth, July 2026
    • with Pascal Paul and Juan M. Sánchez
  3. Expectations on Wealth Returns: Implications for Labor Supply, April 2026
    • with Serdar Birinci and Kurt See
  4. The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States, July 2026
    • with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz
  5. An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing, April 2026
    • with Sam Jordan-Wood and Julian Kozlowski

  6. The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model, June 2026

  7. EBITDA Add-backs in Debt Contracting: A Step Too Far?, September 2022
    • with Avantika Pal, Radhakrishnan Gopalan, Juan M. Sanchez and Vijay Yerramilli
  8. When Liquidity Matters: Firm Balance Sheets during Large Crises, March 2026
  9. A Quantitative Analysis of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer, January 2020
  10. A Note on Information Disclosure and Adverse Selection, May 2015
    • with Joseba Martinez and Thomas Philippon
  11. Risk Incentives in an Interbank Network, July 2015

Published & Accepted Articles

  1. Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
    • Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 157, 2026
    • with Serdar Birinci and Kurt See
  2. The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy
    • Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 252, 2025
    • with Pedro Brinca, Miguel H. Ferreira, Hans Holter and Valter Nobrega
  3. A Quantitative Analysis of Bank Lending Relationships
    • Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 170, 2025
    • with Kyle Dempsey
  4. Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
    • Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Vol. 106, 2024
    • with Fernando Leibovici
  5. Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises
    • Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 106, 2024
    • Code and data here
  6. Evergreening
    • Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 153, 2024 (Lead Article/Editor’s Choice)
    • with Pascal Paul and Juan M. Sanchez
    • mentions: New York Times
  7. Pandemic labor force participation and net worth fluctuations
  8. Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19
    • European Economic Review, Vol. 139, 2021
    • with Pedro Brinca and Joao B. Duarte, code and data here
  9. Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
  10. The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever
  11. Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity
    • Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 84, 2017
    • with Joseba Martinez and Thomas Philippon
  12. The Portuguese banking system during the sovereign debt crisis
    • Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 2015
    • with Matteo Crosignani and Luis Fonseca
    • mentioned in a speech by the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank
  13. Mapping a country’s competitive position: a real exchange rate approach
    • Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. 28, 2011
    • with Joao Zambujal-Oliveira

Book Chapters and Other Publications

  1. The Krugman-Macedo Diagram Revisited
    • Economic Globalization & Governance: Essays in Honor of Jorge Braga de Macedo, 2021
    • with Miguel Lebre de Freitas
  2. Introduction for the special issue on the Gerzensee Conference
    • Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 2020
    • special issue jointly edited with Bill Dupor