Research Economist and Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Lecturer, Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
Ph.D. in Economics, New York University
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Lecturer, Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
Ph.D. in Economics, New York University
Working Papers
- Expectations on Wealth Returns: Implications for Labor Supply, November 2025
- with Serdar Birinci and Kurt See
- The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States, September 2025
- with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz
- An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing, November 2025
- with Sam Jordan-Wood and Julian Kozlowski
-
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model, September 2025
- EBITDA Add-backs in Debt Contracting: A Step Too Far?, September 2022
- with Avantika Pal, Radhakrishnan Gopalan, Juan M. Sanchez and Vijay Yerramilli
- When Liquidity Matters: Firm Balance Sheets during Large Crises, August 2025
- R&R at the JPE: Macro
- with Mahdi Ebsim and Julian Kozlowski
- supersedes Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises
- A Quantitative Analysis of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer, January 2020
- mentions: Central Banking, S&P Global Market Intelligence
- A Note on Information Disclosure and Adverse Selection, May 2015
- with Joseba Martinez and Thomas Philippon
- Risk Incentives in an Interbank Network, July 2015
Published & Accepted Articles
- Dissecting the Great Retirement Boom
- Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 157, 2026
- with Serdar Birinci and Kurt See
- The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy
- Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 252, 2025
- with Pedro Brinca, Miguel H. Ferreira, Hans Holter and Valter Nobrega
- A Quantitative Analysis of Bank Lending Relationships
- Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 170, 2025
- with Kyle Dempsey
- Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
- Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Vol. 106, 2024
- with Fernando Leibovici
- Fiscal Multipliers and Financial Crises
- Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 106, 2024
- Code and data here
- Evergreening
- Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 153, 2024 (Lead Article/Editor’s Choice)
- with Pascal Paul and Juan M. Sanchez
- mentions: New York Times
- Pandemic labor force participation and net worth fluctuations
- Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, First Quarter, 2024
- with Samuel Jordan-Wood
- mentions: Hutchins Roundup, Brookings Institution, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance
- Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19
- European Economic Review, Vol. 139, 2021
- with Pedro Brinca and Joao B. Duarte, code and data here
- Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
- Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol. 125, 2021
- mentions: Brookings Hutchins Roundup, Marginal Revolution
- The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever
- Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 112, 2020
- with Matteo Crosignani and Luis Fonseca
- mentions: Wall Street Journal, Frankfurter Allgemeine
- Runs versus Lemons: Information Disclosure and Fiscal Capacity
- Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 84, 2017
- with Joseba Martinez and Thomas Philippon
- The Portuguese banking system during the sovereign debt crisis
- Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 2015
- with Matteo Crosignani and Luis Fonseca
- mentioned in a speech by the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank
- Mapping a country’s competitive position: a real exchange rate approach
- Studies in Economics and Finance, Vol. 28, 2011
- with Joao Zambujal-Oliveira
Book Chapters and Other Publications
- The Krugman-Macedo Diagram Revisited
- Economic Globalization & Governance: Essays in Honor of Jorge Braga de Macedo, 2021
- with Miguel Lebre de Freitas
- Introduction for the special issue on the Gerzensee Conference
- Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 2020
- special issue jointly edited with Bill Dupor